Washington policymakers are increasingly skeptical about the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a 25-year-old trade deal offering sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market.
Why it matters
AGOA has been a key driver of U.S.-Africa trade, but shifting U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions are putting its renewal in doubt.
Driving the news
- The trade deal is set to expire in September, and Capitol Hill staffers say it’s unlikely to survive in its current form.
- One congressional staffer estimated AGOA is “80% dead,” citing rising opposition from some Republican lawmakers.
- Four Republican Congressmen recently called for South Africa’s removal from AGOA over geopolitical concerns, adding to the uncertainty.
By the numbers
- In 2023, U.S. imports under AGOA totaled $9.7 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2022.
- Crude oil accounted for $4.2 billion of that trade, followed by $1.1 billion in apparel and over $900 million in agricultural products.
What they’re saying
- “It should be reframed within the transactional mindset of this administration and this geopolitical era,” said Zainab Usman, director of the Africa program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
- “The idea of a preferential trade deal is a difficult one in the current environment,” said Frannie Léautier, who co-authored an Atlantic Council report advocating for AGOA’s early renewal.
What’s next
- The U.S. Congress must approve any extension or revision of AGOA, but bipartisan support for free trade has weakened.
- Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order calling for a review of all U.S. trade deals could determine AGOA’s fate when the review concludes on April 1.
The bottom line
Without a strong case proving AGOA benefits U.S. businesses, Africa’s most significant trade deal with the U.S. could be in jeopardy.
Source: Semafor
